Brennan Dwyer
Introduction
Whether it be between two political parties in a country, or tensions between two nations, there is always some sort of conflict and disagreement. It is apparent that in the United States, the divide between two main political parties is getting even more divided and little has gotten done in recent history due to the divide. It is hypothesized in this paper that the only way to really make change in the short run is mainly through peace and compromise.
From looking at a source like ourworldindata.org, it is apparent that humanity has gotten more mature and better as a whole in the very long term, despite short term downturns in ethics. From a quantitative standpoint, a source like ourworldindata.org shows that as time has progressed there has been more democracy, less war, less crime, etc. From a qualitative standpoint, there seems to be more humane rights and rights for many groups of people over time, again with the exception of some short-term downturns. Between two opponents such as two political parties, they can each argue that their case is more ethical and right. As time goes on, it is hypothesized that there has been a tendency for the side that is more ethical and mature to have more of an impact and influence on society, over the very long term, considering what is empirically shown in ourworldindata.org.
However, in the shorter run, if both opponents have roughly the same portion of power, then the conflict will likely continue to be like a ‘back and forth pendulum swing’, and both opponents will fight, with the fight being like a zero-sum game. Unless if one opponent has a much larger portion of power then the other opponent, then it is hypothesized that they are unlikely to have a continued short-term influence on humanity as a whole, and impact people, etc.
A Mathematical Look Between Two Opponents
To better present the argument of this paper, it is put in somewhat of a mathematical context. Equation 1 shows the hypothesis that in the short run the probability of an opponent winning is roughly equal to the portion of power that this opponent has. For example, if an opponent has about one half of the power, or 50% of the power, then they have a roughly 50% chance of succeeding in the conflict.
Equation 1
(“Sniping Tool” was used for Equation 1 and 2 since it doesn’t convert nicely on here).
In something such as politics, those in power like the majority of senators in power being one specific party may not accurately represent the viewpoint of the overall population, which may be more evenly split between each party, like in the United States. Equation 2 theoretically shows from a short term (but longer-term then Equation 1) standpoint how the portion of power that opponent 1 has is roughly equal to the portion of the population that supports them. There is obviously many exceptions throughout history, but it is hypothesized that it tends to balance out and be somewhat accurate with Equation 2. For example, if roughly 50% of the United States voting population is Republican, and the other is roughly 50% Democrat, then over time the portion of senators that are Republican and those that are Democrats should roughly be the same ratio as those in the voting population that are of each party, despite short term back and forth changes between both parties in the senate.
Equation 2
Basically a way to look at a conflict between two opponents is that in the short term there will be back and forth changes between who has more power which may give more confidence that change can be done that way, but over a longer period of time it may even out to be more balanced between the power of two opponents relative to the portion of the population that supports them. Perhaps one of the few ways to make real change in the short term (without having to wait it out in the long term for humanity to become more mature and ethical), is to peacefully get across the message and try to inform others and perhaps through peaceful protest, etc. Then there is also obviously compromise. It would be hard to image two opponents without at least some common ground, and obviously a back and forth ‘tug of war’ just creates volatility and is likely bad for both sides in the long run, therefore it is most stable and likely most quick to take action through compromise.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this paper gives the hypothesis that when there is a conflict between two opponents, that it is largely just a ‘tug of war’ that acts like a zero-sum game, and that really only change can be made peacefully, or through compromise. Both equations in this paper are still theoretically and not based on empirical evidence, so obviously finding empirical evidence to support both of those equations would possibly further prove the case of this paper. It is in great hopes that whether it be tensions between two nations, or even two political parties, that peace and compromise is done, rather than a volatile ‘fight’.
Works Cited
Dwyer, B. (2019, December 4). Proposal for Bipartisanship. Retrieved from https://econteenblog.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/proposal-for-bipartisanship/
Our World in Data. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/